Fly on WallStreet

BEHOLD: iBankCoin.com

2007-11-12T10:01:00.001-05:00

Quitting is for pussies. You didn't actually think I was going to vanish into thin air, in the middle of a fucking bear raid, therefore giving third tier blogs a boost in traffic, did you?

Fuck that.

If you own a third tier blog, you might as well print this fucking post out and put this shit on your blog's tombstone (I realize blogs cannot be physically buried),cause it's dead.

Much to your chagrin, "The Fly" is dumping this blogspot shit for his own domain, iBC.

This way, I can really put the hammer of death on my sworn enemies, while handsomely rewarding myself, via internet silly money.

Everything will be the same, with the exception of a few additional features, such as the merchandising of low-end internet clothes, which was entirely Woodshedder's idea.

Ducati, step into my office

2007-11-11T23:45:00.000-05:00

You're fucking fired.

Ha, just like that--ignorant style.

See, the problem with Ducati, and many of his ilk, he relies on make believe statistics and macro-economics to make market calls.

Wrong.

Ask anyone who manages money, using macro-analysis, as a guide to investing, is a suckers path to getting fleeced.

While Ducati may have the wind behind his sails now, considering how the "homo hammer of hell" is smashing bull nuts, ultimately he (Ducati) will die wrong.

In many ways, we are all stupid fucktards, trying to find our niche, our special skill-- to make enough money so that we can fly to the moon in a monkey suit.

Let me just say this: Ducati will never wear a fucking monkey suit, in a pimped out space ship, on his way to the fucking moon.

Fly wins again.

Should I shitcan Ducati, again? [30 votes total]
Yes (21)	70%
No (9)	30%

FINAL ELECTIONS

2007-11-11T19:05:00.001-05:00

While some of you think I let Ducati post here, for sentimental or poetic reasons, you're wrong.

Know this: Ducati is an enemy of this website, always has been. I spit on his analysis and chuckle, not laugh, at his fucktarded bearish views.

In short, I just thought it would be fun to fucking fire him again.

It's that simple--and fucked up.

So, without further adieu, should I shitcan Ducati, again?

Fuck you Grant.

THE END

2007-11-11T18:56:00.001-05:00

Final Ducati post. Stay tuned for "final elections."

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The readership of Sir Fly’s blog has of course mutated over time, new readers appear, and old ones wander off to die somewhere. There have been a couple of comments in the comments section stating that they missed my first weekend stint. No matter, the one stock that defines the love/hate relationship twixt Broker A and some of the stalwarts is without a doubt……..MVIS.

When I claimed MVIS was overvalued, howls of derision. When I claimed MVIS had little or no institutional buying interest, I was accused of sodomising children, I argued the case that corporate action was fraudulent to existing shareholders with the debacle in the Warrants, my wife was ridiculed, when I claimed that MVIS had no patents worth anything, that in point of fact, all that they had were patent applications, a form of internet immortality ensued.

I had an infamous $10 bet with Broker A that is still outstanding while I await the arrival of a lemonade bottle launched I presume into the South Atlantic, to date it has not arrived in the Tasman.

What is the story today?

Well, let’s take a look at MVIS currently. First a very cursory examination of MVIS financial strength

EBIT……………….. [-$29.0]

Total Assets………... $50.42

Net Sales………..….. $7.04

Market Value…….… $222.38

Total Liabilities……. $11.27

Current Assets…….. $44.91

Current Liabilities…. $9.46

Retained Earnings…. [-253.4]

Altman Ratio [-3.89] which predicts a high probability of bankruptcy.

Of course the concept was never really about the numbers, if it was, well more fool you, the story was of course about the potential of this PicoP projector.

Let’s examine the story a little more closely. Without patent protection of the latest technological developments, this project will be doomed by imitative competition, thus, the patents assume a very large component in the quest for profitability.

Second, let’s assume that the patents are secured and that illegal competition will be curbed. Now the problem becomes, what exactly is the market share? At what price can this technology be sold? What about the vast arrays of partnerships, what exactly is their financial interest, how will this impact unit costs and profitability?

There have been numerous studies that detail the longer the development period of a new product or technology, the greater the bias to the upside estimates become, with the invariable disappointment leading to sub-par results.

Even when market demand is accurately forecast, underestimations of the competition can lead to sub-par results. A salutary example is within the air industry. The demand for passenger and freight proved to be underestimated, but the resulting over-capacity of the industry has created poor investment results over thirty years.

The length of time that this development is taking, has become in addition to the shocking financial condition of MVIS, a very real and growing risk to the owners of the business, viz. the shareholders.

In summary, I never liked MVIS, I still don’t like MVIS and I feel that this stock represents a speculation of the most uneducated nature.

To wrap up the weekend, it was however appropriate that MVIS closed out the weekend as it has defined probably more than any other single stock pick the very heart & soul of Broker A’s time in the blogosphere.

Certainly the blogosphere will be a slightly less entertaining place after Monday and the final demise of the “Fly”.

I certainly have enjoyed visiting and observing the unfolding sagas and some of the immortal characters that have populated this particular blog.

The panache and je ne sais quoi will be hard to replicate again, so on behalf of all I wish Broker A bon voyage and adieu.

Jog on

grant

OPPORTUNITY

2007-11-11T18:00:00.000-05:00

The US market and emerging markets are ranging from marginally overvalued with catalysts to the downside, to, grossly overvalued speculative time bombs.

I now offer you a quote from Horace and “Ars Poetica”, for those of you who possibly visited my blog, you will remember it;

“Multa renascentur quae iam cecidere cadentque quae nunc sunt in honore”

The moral being that bull markets invariably create bear markets, and that eventually, the bull markets revert to bear markets, while bear markets grow to bulls.

True bear markets offer very low risk entry points with huge potential upside reward potential. True bear markets are reviled by investors as they have underperformed for long periods of time, frequently teasing with cyclical bull rallies in a secular bear trend.

I have emphasized, at least for those paying attention the importance of a catalyst within investment decisions. This is not an area that I have particularly emphasized within my own investments or trading. It is however an attribute that has been on prominent display on this blog for those who were attentive.

The catalyst in this particular opportunity is particularly important as the quantitative valuation is pretty much useless. The numbers themselves provide only the merest hint and they are difficult in any case.

Thus, we are left with an almost pure qualitative play.

Japanese Yen

Japan has been in a deflationary spiral for some 20yrs now. The stock market, the real estate market, the currency have all been in a secular downtrend.

Why now?

A number of qualitative factors and one quantitative factor; I shall dispense with the quantitative factor first.

Japanese interest rates are slowly working their way upwards, from 0.25% to 0.5% currently, with further rises planned. Higher interest rates will strengthen, in time the currency.

Let’s now move to the qualitative factors; interest rates around the rest of the world have been slowly rising, faster in New Zealand, Iceland and Australia. As the world economy slows, so these rate rises will slow, freeze, or start to reverse.

Bankruptcy proceedings, both business and consumer are accelerating here in New Zealand. As the US economy slows, so the exponential growth in China will start to slow. The Chinese economy is addicted to export led growth, internal consumption is anaemic.

Thus, a closing of the interest rate spread and thus the carry trade, successful for the last 20yrs will come under increasing pressure.

Further, overpriced assets, that find themselves correcting will also find themselves if purchased with cheap Yen, under pressure to reverse.

Real estate values have again started to rise in Tokyo and other cities. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citibank have been purchasing commercial property in the last couple of months, positioning themselves for the end of the great Japanese bear market.

Rising real estate prices, in time force a rise in the interest rate, which for the purpose of this trade is a good thing.

Currencies trend for very long periods of time and the potential for this trade due to the massive undervaluation engendered by the carry trade is large.

Who are you trading against?

In manias, the last people to get sucked in tend to be the amateurs, seduced by the idea that markets only ever move in one direction. That easy money can be made, that the leverage available via margin can make them very rich, very quickly.

Some time ago, possibly 2 months, an article appeared detailing the extraordinary story that Japanese housewives were dominating the Fx market, engaged in the carry trade. Thus, you are trading against the leveraged Japanese housewife.

It is easy to take an unleveraged position within the Japanese Yen via FXY an ETF that has previously been mentioned on this blog.

In summary, we have some quantitative data via interest rates and numerous qualitative underpinnings to catch a secular bull market in its infancy.

Jog on

grant

CREDIT

2007-11-11T15:40:00.000-05:00

We now turn our attention to the current crisis affecting the financials. Much of the story may well be old-hat to those that follow the fundamentals of the market, some might actually surprise you.

I actually follow the fundamentals quite closely, yet, the scope of the problem had eluded me, therefore, a hat-tip is due Mr. Sierra Water for uncovering the data that will provide some of the referenced data provided.

The problem started in MBBS, specifically, sub-prime mortgages. With deteriorating employment, rising interest rates, overpriced housing stock, lax, to no lending standards, incredible greed and stupidity, fraudulent business practices, it was simply a matter of when, not if, there was a crisis.

The players

*Banks

*Ratings Services

*Consumers

*The Fed.

First off, just how big is the problem? From the chart below we can easily see that the problem is large.

The banks loaned to consumers, who could not afford a mortgage, and then securitized the loans via MBBS, CDO’s etc and sold them to all and sundry.

They were aided and abetted in this undertaking by the ratings Agencies, Standard & Poor, Fitch and Moody’s, who accepted large fees for granting AAA grades, based on the principal of diversification.

Not being satisfied with simply this set of fees, the Banks then issued derivatives, Credit Default Swaps on the MBBS.

This is where the problem has escalated a couple of notches.

Worldwide derivatives are valued at some $400 Trillion or 30x the entire worlds GDP. US Bank exposure is circa $150 Trillion in notional value.

The vast majority of this exposure is concentrated within; JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citibank, Wachovia and HSBC.

The CDS exposure is circa $12 Trillion.

Now of course as the default rate starts to escalate, so there is movement within these derivative contracts. As the exposure is so leveraged, the Balance Sheets of these Banks is called into question.

Although the majority of the exposure is hedged, the fear is that a failure somewhere in the system might cause that exposure to move down the line and cause a bankruptcy to a First Tier Bank, Citibank for example.

The catalyst for the August meltdown, based on credit fears, was the downgrading of billions of dollars worth of MBBS securities.

One Hedge Fund that evaporated had purchased securities at $0.05 on the dollar and was required to provide margin to $0.80 on the dollar, needless to say, they passed on this generous offer.

We have two catalysts brewing for the next stage in the credit crisis. The first is an accounting change that takes effect I believe November 15 and that is Rule 157. This rule requires Level 3 assets to be more accurately valued, hence, the Merrill implosion, Citibank and Chuck.

The second of course are your corrupt Ratings Agencies again, from Fridays Wall St Journal;

"As of Nov. 1, S&P had lowered ratings on 381 tranches of residential mortgage-related CDOs. It still had a "Credit Watch negative" on 709 CDO tranches, meaning the bonds face a good chance of a downgrade.

Fitch has 609 CDO tranches on negative watch and plans to act on them by later this month. Through the end of October, Moody's said it had downgraded so far this year 338 CDO tranches worth $13 billion, backed primarily by mortgage-backed securities. It was still reviewing for downgrade another 734 tranches worth $48 billion.

Moody's says it hopes to finish its current crop of CDO downgrades in the next few months. Further downgrades could happen depending on the rating firm's assumptions about the underlying economy, where the outlook could be changing fast."

So it would seem that there remains much market volatility into the future.

CHINA

2007-11-11T15:33:00.000-05:00

China has had a lot of press recently. Their stock market is going parabolic. Warren Buffett has recently sold out of PTR citing valuations.

Everyone pretty much accepts that at some point the market will become a debacle with all and sundry running for the exits. It is also true however that the market may have much further to rise before the dénouement actually takes place.

Chart.

It certainly provides some food for thought.

SUMMARY

2007-11-11T13:34:00.000-05:00

The first analysis based on ratio analysis left possibly an open question as to the value and likely direction in the medium term……medium term being defined as the next three years. I shall return once again to this baseline analysis when we look at the Gold & Oil markets in relation to the stock market.

Through sector analysis we have identified that the business cycle is most likely positioned within the late expansion, early contraction phase, thus, we would conclude that the stock market contains greater risk than reward at this point, assuming a long directional position.

We move next to China and the Chinese stock market. There have been numerous stock selections from Sir Fly, all carrying a health warning.

This market is if not already in a mania, close to one, this speculative orgy carries great risk, but of course parabolic moves can make leveraged bets into huge winners, thus the temptation will always be present.

For the more risk averse we shall look at the “timing” of the Chinese phenomenon, as, it will directly relate to the undervaluation that I have in mind.

Jog on

grant

BUSINESS CYCLES

2007-11-10T23:40:00.000-05:00

There will probably be dissention; however, the business cycle is alive and well. Much work was completed by Schumpeter, Kondratieff, Irving Fisher and numerous others. Having being made aware previously the limited attention span of the average Fly reader, I shall dispense with any further references and cut directly to the chase.

The business cycle has an important bearing upon financial markets and the stock market in particular.

Cycle Stage……..Recession…..Early Recovery……Recovery……Early Recession

Consumer………..Reviving…….Rising……………..Declining………Falling

Industrial………..Bottoming……Rising……………Flat………………Falling

Interest………….Falling………..Bottoming…………Rising…………Peaking

Yield Curve……..Normal………Steep………………Flattening………Inverted

Early expansion

Technology, Transportation

Middle expansion

Capital Goods, Basic Materials

Late expansion

Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Staples

Early Contraction

Utilities, Financials

Late Contraction

Financials, Consumer cyclicals

How then has the S&P500 performed across the following timeframes?

Timeframe…………………52weeks…….YTD……..3months……..1month

Technology……………….12.72%..........11.6%...........1.4%...............[-6.1%]

Financials……………..…[-14.6%]……. [-17.6%]…..[-9.6%]……...[-15.2%]

Health Care………………7.5%................4.8%.............2.4%..............[-3.9%]

Industrials…………………13%................11.2%..........[-0.2%]……..[-7.1%]

Consumer Staples………….9.2%..............6.8%............2.3%...............[-0.4%]

Energy…………………….28.5%.............27%..............10.6%.............[-1.8%]

Consumer Discretionary….[-8.5%]……...[-11.3%]…...[-7%]………..[-10.3%]

Utilities…………………...17.4%..............14%..............5.4%..............1.4%

Materials………………….23%.................19.6%...........6.4%..............[-4.3%]

With the odd exception, we can observe that the theoretical business cycle correlates reasonably well with reality.

Energy and Utilities have been the strongest which we would expect at this stage of the business cycle which is the late expansion phase.

Financials are currently the topic-de-jour and are in point of fact indicating that the market may well be entering the early contraction phase. Consumer cyclicals, or discretionary are also showing confirmatory movement.

Therefore we can add the sector analysis to the overall market analysis of the first post and reassess the picture once again.

Jog on

grant

INTRODUCTION

2007-11-10T20:57:00.000-05:00

More Ducati Fun.

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“The Fly of Wallstreet” has as you now know, announced his retirement from the blogging career that ran so successfully for all these months.

Why, was the arch-nemesis, “The Ducati” selected to provide possibly the only weekend blogging spot?

Possibly due to the fact that my much maligned selection on my debut and concurrently final appearance to date, was that fine performer TELOZ that prior to Fridays debacle, returned in excess of 100% in a challenging environment.

It is now my assigned duty to shed some light on the current market machinations, while possibly highlighting an opportunity that will provide a margin of safety for a longer term holding period in which we try to catch a secular trend.

This therefore is the intention. However, let me first digress. “The Fly” while injecting a certain level of gutter humour and wit to his blogging duties, also provided some interesting perspectives on the art of investing.

I have noted in the comments section, some of the detractors have criticized the methodology employed as “momentum investing” and this I suppose could be fairly classified as a form of “CANSLIM” or “GARP”.

While I believe that there is an element of truth to those accusations, they fall short of the reality. The reality is the analysis of the story. It is of course the story of MVIS that both enchanted and captivated; the story of the fat, beer guzzling, wing consuming, red neck southern fried gentleman that entertained in BWLD.

The “story” is in point of fact also known and referred to as a “Catalyst”. The catalyst is a vital, possibly the vital component, within this style of momentum/value based trading. There are some other posters in the comments section that display skills in this direction, they however lack the panache, charisma, and devil-may-care attitude generated on an almost daily basis by “Sir Fly”

Therefore the qualitative research provided identifying these catalysts is by no means easy or forthright to elicit. However, via quantitative research, we may find potential targets and ruminate upon their qualitative underpinnings. This will be the “homage” paid to “Sir Fly” as he leaves the blogosphere.

Jog on

grant

Enter Stage: Ducati

2007-11-10T17:11:00.000-05:00

BREAKING QUICK ALERT NEWS: Ducati Has Returned!
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In a weird twist of ironic irony, "The Fly" invited Ducati to be his last weekend blogger--feeling he 'owed his readers that much fun.'

However, due to the old nature of Ducati's brain, he has been unable to create a blogger account, accusing google of having some sort of conspiracy against him.

So, he (Ducati) has emailed me his 'weekend work,' for me to post ("enjoy"):

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With the current turmoil in the market, generated primarily by the Financials and sub-prime concerns, where is the market?

If we compare the 1982 level with the bottom in 2003 and the current position [as of September] in 2007 what conclusions can be drawn?

We shall start with a macro-analysis of the market and proceed to a sector analysis to see if any clear conclusions emerge from the analysis.

Year……………………………1982………………2003……………….2007

Closing Price…………………109.40………………837.03…………..1497.12

Earned in year………………...$13.97………………29.41……………. $86.03

Dividend …………………..…$6.82………………$16.22……………. $27.06

Bond Yield……………….….14.30%........................3.90%.....................4.72%

PPI………………………..….100.4…………………137.6……………174.5

Gold…………………………$350…………………$340……………. $841.10

Oil…………………………..$31.56………………..$35.87…………...$95.46

GDP………………………...$3186.0………………$1075.6…………. $14200.0

Ratios;

P/E…………………………..7.83……………..…28.46………….…….17.40

Earnings Yield…………..…12.8%........................3.5%...........................5.7%

Dividend Yield……………...6.2%........................1.9%...........................1.8%

Stock/Bond Yield…………...0.89…………….…0.74…………………..1.2

Dividend/Bond Yield……….0.43…………….…0.40…………………..0.37

Gold/Price………………….3.19……………….0.40…………………..0.56

Oil/Price……………………0.28……………….0.04…………………..0.56

Price/GDP………………….0.03……………….0.77…………………..0.11

I have my own conclusions regarding the data. Of course I also have my own bias”, thus any interpretation of the data will be tinged with that bias.

Therefore, prior to any formal analysis, I shall simply present the data for you to mull over and draw conclusions.

I shall in due course provide an analysis of the pertinent information that can be elicited and possibly some opinion may emerge from the comments section, time will, as always, reveal all.

Jog on

grant

Quick Reminder

2007-11-09T22:11:00.001-05:00

Always remember, "The Fly" is smarter than you, despite not participating in future 'super-cycles.'

Snow Patrol - Wow

2007-11-09T15:52:00.000-05:00

Closing Comments: Wrong Again!

2007-11-09T15:45:00.000-05:00

Oh boy, worst case scenario of a close.

Ironically, remember to tune in for "The Fly's" funeral, live on Monday, at 10:00am.

However, before that, be sure to visit this weekend. I have a special guest weekend blogger, scheduled to muck things up a bit.

As for today:

The financials did well, while tech sucked balls.

The downward momentum is staggering, and the margin calls are piling in.

Unfortunately, because of this close, we are set up for a swift thrashing Monday morning--around 10:00am.

Again,irony.

In closing, "The Fly" has like two stocks worth looking at, as of now: WBD and CLX.

We're entirely fucked. Enjoy the weekend.

NOTE: Stocks are for asshats.

NOTE II: BEHOLD!

Fix Bayonets

2007-11-09T14:48:00.001-05:00

How 'bout a Late Day Rally?

2007-11-09T14:09:00.001-05:00

Angelo Mozilo, CEO, CountryWide Financial

Fly Buys: RIMM, VMW, VMI, BWLD, GRMN

2007-11-09T13:58:00.000-05:00

Ok, here goes:

I'm taking some risk here, betting we do not crash through the floor boards. Believe me, talking to people, everyone is nervous, thinking the "end is near."

So, with negativity at a fresh high, I want to be long some of the damaged leadership stocks, in anticipation of a leg up.

I could be wrong and do not recommend taking the same approach. However, buying leadership on these types of dips have proven, over and over, to be very timely and profitable trades.

As for my CFC position:

I intend to blow that fucker out on Monday or Tuesday.

NOTE: It's the strength in the financials that has given me confidence to put wheel barrow dollars to work.

NOTE II: BWLD @ $28.39, VMW @ $88.65, VMI @ $81.02, RIMM @ $114.35, GRMN @ $ 87.13.

Fly Message to Internet Fucktards

2007-11-09T12:48:00.000-05:00

Quick Alert: Off to Dunkin' Donuts

2007-11-09T11:11:00.001-05:00

Fake mustache disguise and all.

Developing...

"Kill the White People"

2007-11-09T10:13:00.000-05:00

2007-11-09T10:09:00.001-05:00

Fly Buy: VMW

2007-11-09T09:58:00.000-05:00

I bought 2,000 VMW @ $88.53.

Disclaimer: If you buy VMW because of this post, you will run out of money. And, you may lose money.

The Market Sucks; But We're Still Going North

2007-11-09T09:33:00.000-05:00

Perhaps "The Fly" is being delusional. However, this sell off feels a little "old hat."

Crazy rallies and knife to the chest drops get played out fast. After all, Thanksgiving is coming.

That's right, I'm basing my entire investment philosophy around a day, when fat fucks stuff their faces with greasy turkey legs and candied yams.

Not, but seriously, I'm too busy for this sell off shit. Will someone please inform the appropriate parties, "The Fly" would like the market to go higher again, so that he could make fun of his bearish friends?

Thanks in advance.

As you can see, the market is cutting through year to date gains, like a hot knife through goat cheese. All of the leadership stocks are being pimp smacked, like little bitches.

Quite frankly, as opposed to being "unfrank," the long term prospects for this market look dire, as they always do during times of duress.

What to do?

The new double inverse China etf, FXP, looks like fun. But, it's probably too late to be shorting down here.

Shorting down here is equal to carrying a sign in Beijing, which reads: "The Communist Government of China Can go Fuck Themselves, Every Which Way, But Loose."

That shit would be a bad idea, as is shorting stocks, fucktard style, down here.

The next move is up, thanks to the wonderful day of gluttony.

Good times.

NOTE: HANS upgraded today, $55 price target applied.

Early Morning Thought

2007-11-09T08:56:00.001-05:00

Stocks are for asshats.

Fly Flashback: Topping Patterns

2007-11-08T20:19:00.000-05:00

Technical analysis is a wonderful way to combine both laziness and ignorance. Ask Warren Buffett.

However, from time to time, "The Fly" looks at a few, while eating crunchy dill pickles.

At any rate, back on 10/3, I warned you, and myself, of topping out formations--during the 7th week of a run.

DON'T TRY TO REFUTE THIS SHIT.

The data was derived from multiple "bubbly runs" in speculative sectors, like ethanol, internets, nanotech, etc.

The lesson to be learned: stick with your disciplines and try not to fall into the "this time may be different" fucktarded type of mentality.

Had I listened, I would have sold short Chinese stocks, instead of buying them--cupfucker style.

Chris Brown - Kiss Kiss

2007-11-08T16:29:00.001-05:00

Closing Comments

2007-11-08T16:02:00.000-05:00

We can't go down forever.

Call me crazy, but for a trade, I want to be long the financials, specifically CFC, MER and MS.

Also, the sell off in HANS is way over done. Luckily, for me, I bought some today, near $39.

It's hard to ignore stocks that just won't go down, like POT, MON, OPY and all of the solar fuckers. However, I warn you, all trends break--at some point.

My game plan is simple:

Milk the ensuing short covering rally, while actively setting up short sales--once the rally fades.

My best guess, we run until Thanksgiving, then slide until Christmas.

Top pick: VMI.

Fly Buy: VMI

2007-11-08T15:33:00.000-05:00

I bought 2,000 VMI @ $83.73.

Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, you'll go bankrupt. And, you may lose money.

Fuck You Guys: Lotto Numbers

2007-11-08T15:22:00.000-05:00

Tonight's winning lotto numbers will be:

53, 6, 67, 3, 1,14, 23

Grape Drink

2007-11-08T14:56:00.000-05:00

Christmas Comes Early?

2007-11-08T13:20:00.000-05:00

Let's consider a few things, as stocks try to kill me:

The market is operated by fucktards, who have tanned their brains to the point where all they like is solar stocks.

Large financial institutions are pissed on, discarded for dead.

Tech stocks are now receiving the "homo-hammer" of death, via John Chambers.

However!

We're going into an election year. No fucking way does this slippery slope get greased up, prior to the election.

So, understand there are greater powers out there, very conspiratorial, who want status quo; I'm calling a short term, tradeable, bottom.

Just like that.

Back to my whiskey bottle.

Race to Zero

2007-11-08T12:42:00.000-05:00

Days like today make my decision to manage money for a living, all the more meaningful. I could be busy with patients or telling a judge to go fuck his dog; instead, I'm here doing this shit.

Let's have it out:

VMW back to $50, today-- fuckfaces.

GOOG, BIDU, GS and ISRG going down $50--today.

BWLD, HANS, RIMM, AAPL, TBSI, DEG, CROX, WM, C, NVDA, ORCL, MLNX, KNXA, NTRI, AMKR, ZUMZ, HURC and everything else-- to zero--today.

Life is mostly about choices and stupid people. When the two are combined, one ends up owning stocks.

MORE GOOD NEWS:

DB Deutsche Bank CEO: "Worst banks crisis" and does not expect any further writedowns for his own bank - Reuters (123.00 +1.77) -Update-
	Reuters reports the turmoil gripping global credit markets is the worst crisis in the bank CEO's Josef Ackermann's 30-year career, but he does not expect it to cause any further writedowns for his own bank. "(This) is psychologically the worst crisis that I have seen in my 30 years," he added, speaking to journalists at the Reuters Finance Summit.

How 'bout a Mid-Day Rally?

2007-11-08T12:01:00.002-05:00

Canceled.

Nasdaq down 100?

How 'bout a Mid-Day Rally?

2007-11-08T12:01:00.001-05:00

Angelo Mozilo, CEO, CountryWide Financial

Fly Sells: CRESY, GME, ALJ

2007-11-08T11:23:00.000-05:00

Fuck them.

Fly Buy: LFT

2007-11-08T11:19:00.000-05:00

I bought 2,000 LFT @ $21.75.

Disclaimer: If you buy LFT because of this post, Ducati will take over this blog. And, you may lose money.

Am I Not Merciful?

2007-11-08T10:41:00.000-05:00

Fly Buy: HANS

2007-11-08T10:40:00.001-05:00

I bought 2,000 HANS @ $39.04.

Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, you're a retard. And, you may lose money.

Fly Buy: CFC

2007-11-08T10:40:00.000-05:00

I bought 10,000 shares of CFC @ $13.85.

Disclaimer: If you buy CFC because of this post, your only son will tan like Angelo Mozilo. And, you may lose money.

Fly Buy: CLX

2007-11-08T10:26:00.000-05:00

I bought 2,000 CLX @ $64.39.

Disclaimer: If you buy CLX because of this post, you will get offended by anonymous jerk offs on the internet. And, you may lose money.

Quick Alert: Sold by Me to others

2007-11-08T09:54:00.000-05:00

As you know, I've been somewhat quiet on recent moves. Just know, I trade every fucking day, like a deviled banshee (I have no idea what that means).

Just to bring you up to speed on my current holdings:

Sold 90% of iiG
Sold 75% of HANS
Sold 90% of FMCN
Sold 100% of OIIM
Sold 10% of XFML
Sold 90% of FTK (high 40's, thank God)
Sold 100% of LNN
Sold 100% of ERTS
Sold 50% of FXI
Sold 75% of RS

Stocks that I've added:

CLX
GLF
WBD
JCG
BWLD
VMI
GD

Sector Spotlight: Retail

2007-11-08T09:35:00.000-05:00

Look, I'll play along, whistling in my head, and make believe we're still in a bull market.

Yeah, everything is fucking great, with the exception of 95% of companies that report earnings. Naturally, of course, there is tremendous demand for anything solar. However, aside from that, this market has the look and taste of shit-pop.

Just know and understand, if you are long a stock that misses earnings, even by a single penny, it's going down 30%.

Hah?

Fuck you, you're dead (BID, HANS, ZUMZ).

Which leads me to my next suggestion:

Sell short the spikes. Fuck it, the trend has reversed; the tape is broken.

All of these retailers are on the precipice of destruction, with the exception of GYMB--since Mrs. Fly owns it.

Finally, it's worth mentioning, CSCO is a homo again. Sell it all; then sell it again.

Stocks are for Jerks

2007-11-08T08:49:00.000-05:00

HANS missed.

I sold most of my position yesterday, but this is just terrible.

Generally, beverage companies are good tells on a nations economy.

In short, this economy is in the shitter.

Buy it back @ $39.

Fly Announcement: The Grand Finale

2007-11-07T21:35:00.000-05:00

All fucktards, under the age of 47 1/2, are cordially invited to see an "internet legend" (Fly) off, live: Monday, November 12th at 10:00 am.

Proper attire is demanded.

I intend to reveal certain things about "The Fly," and detail why it makes sense to burn this fucking blog down to the ground.

Also, do not miss this weekend's guest blogger, who will be sure to entertain, in a soul grinding sort of way.

In short, "fuck you, I quit."

Alkaholiks: The Flute Song

2007-11-07T16:05:00.000-05:00

Closing Comments

2007-11-07T16:00:00.000-05:00

Holy shit that was fun!

I was making so much money today, going short my own positions; I ended up doing the running man and the cabbage patch dances-- late in the day-- thanks to sheer happiness.

Seriously, I was dancing on graves, while spitting at my trader/servant.

Fuck, down 370 points. Gee, life is great.

As you know, us short sellers deserve this shit. I'm short every financial, both private and publicly traded, while long gold bricks and other shit.

God willing, HANS will miss earnings and gap down $40.

This is it boys, the market is done.

Long live Bob Pasani.

NOTE: During the composition of this post, "The Fly" was restrained at his local mental institution.

Late Day Thought

2007-11-07T15:48:00.000-05:00

Maria Bartiromo is a dick. And, there is no such thing as a "Woodshedder Bottom, part II."

Position Update: HANS

2007-11-07T15:15:00.000-05:00

I'm selling half of my position here, ahead of earnings.

There is no way in sweet hell will "The Fly" give away his hard fought gains in HANS.

Now, I still believe they will blow out numbers, considering their new distribution agreement and successful product launches; but this market is twisted.

Live to fight another day.

Updated Breaking News: "The Woodshedder Bottom," part II

2007-11-07T14:53:00.000-05:00

Woodshedder just slapped a VIX chart on his blog, saying all types of ominous things about the market.

You can see, quite clearly, that his lines have perfect symmetry, enabling him to predict future outcomes in stocks and other shit too.

Quick Alert: Go Long

2007-11-07T14:15:00.000-05:00

The Government just told me they will rescue the market, by the bell.

Odd no?

Developing...

Kill the Appraisers

2007-11-07T13:45:00.000-05:00

All of these banking fuckers need to do some serious jail time.

However, it's worth mentioning, the appraisers need to go to State Prison too.

Those fuckers made sure their appraisal met the loan value.

Why aren't they in jail yet?

NOTE: Carnage in the financials reminds me of Armageddon, despite never actually living through an actual period of Armageddon.

"Come Out to Play"

2007-11-07T13:33:00.001-05:00

Bear Market

2007-11-07T13:08:00.000-05:00

Hopefully this post will mark the bottom of the market. However, let's call a spade a spade.

This is what a bear market looks like.

Aside from a few fucktarded tech stocks, nothing is working--going into the best time of year to invest.

Everything from financial to retail, and the stuff that's in between, is getting skinned alive.

It's really hard to be a big fucking believer in this market, after seeing one terrible earnings report after another.

Like the decline in the dollar and rise in commodities, betting against credit/housing related names have been automatic.

PMI to zero.

ABK to zero.

CFC to negative 20.

Amazing.

In short, you're better off playing battleship in your toilet bowl, than fucking around with this market.

Quick Alert: FlyonWallStreet Banned at Maxim Group

2007-11-07T12:46:00.000-05:00

According to my sources at Maxim Group, this website, thanks to this post, has been banned at Maxim Group.

I'm guessing, the whole Chuck Bennett/MVIS conference call thing caused the fucktards who operate that shitbox to filter out this wonderfuck of a blog.

Developing...

The Important Matter of Bad Nicknames

2007-11-07T11:17:00.000-05:00

I'm fucking busy, so this will be brief.

A long time ago, "little Fly" was a kick ass baseball player, a pitcher of course.

I must have been 12 years old, on the mound, striking batters out--as usual.

Then, all of a sudden, my Mother started screaming from the stands-- a nickname that I had never heard before.

Much to my chagrin, she was cheering: "go Scooter go, go Scooter gooo!"

What the fuck!

As you know, being the rock star little league pitcher that I was, this was an alarming turn of events--having my own Mother heckle me, with queer nicknames, from the stands.

I stepped off the mound and gave my Mother one of the looks--but it was too late.

The other team had caught on, appreciating the femininity of this nickname, and began chanting "Scooter."

Being the level headed pre-teen that I was, I planned to ignore them, while mowing down their bullshit lineup.

But, then it happened.

The Scooter shit reached a fevered pitch, with laughter everywhere, making "little Fly" embarrassed/agitated.

I snapped.

I stepped off the fucking mound and threw a fastball into the opposing teams dugout, screaming: "fuck you assholes."

Shortly thereafter, "little Fly" was removed from the game, kicking and screaming, ordered to leave the ball park.

As I walked home with my Mother, all I heard was "Scooter, Scooter."

Cocksuckers.

Sector Spotlight: Èç¹ûÄãÊ

2007-11-07T10:38:00.000-05:00

Èç¹ûÄãÊ¹ÓÃµÄµçÄÔ¿ÉÒÔÏÔÊ¾¼òÌåÖÐÎÄ, GM.

Èç¹ûÄã, cocksuckers, Èç¹ûÄãÊ¹ÓÃµÄµçÄÔ¿¿ý¤F¥þ²y¦U¦aªº¤¤¤åº. ¦pªG§A¨Ï¥Îªº¹q¸£¥i¥HÅã¥ÜÁcÅé¤¤¤å "subprime fuckfaces" ¦pªG§A¨Ï¥Îªº¹.

Check this shit out: ¦U¦aªº¤¤¤åºô¯¸¡A¬O±M, M¥Ø¿ý¡C , "machine gunned," ÖÐÎÄ.

With my money, ÖÐÎÄ, ÃµÄµçÄÔ¿ÉÒ, Åé¤¤¤å, "Mother Market," M¥Ø¿ý¡C --my balls are on fire.

¶Ó½øÈë, iiG, VMI, MVIS, BWLD, XFML-- ¥i¥HÅã¥ÜÁcÅé¤¤, ÄãÊ¹ÓÃµÄ-- chop my balls off and put them through a grinder--Äã.

¦pªG§A¨Ï, fuck it, Ó½ø,ÉÒÔÏÔÊ¾¼, donuts and carrots, ÅªªÌ©--q¸£¥i¥H-- fuck you too.

Developing...

NOTE: ÄµçÄÔ¿ÉÒÔ, "time machine," Åã¥ÜÁcÅé¤¤, assholes, ¸¡A¬O±Mªù¬°¤¤¤åÅªª-- so there.

Late Night Demand

2007-11-06T22:06:00.000-05:00

During my final days blogging here, I demand you fuckers wear a suit and tie, when reading this fucking site.

Have some class.

NOTE: Failure to adhere to "The Fly's" new dress code policy will result in the seizure of your dry cleaning.

"Dollar Danks" has it all figured out

2007-11-06T20:49:00.000-05:00

As you know, "The Fly" sold that iiG shit, prior to tonights 'earnings fuck you.' As usual, the stock fucking cratered in after hours trading.

However, unlike other fuck bag stocks, iiG will rally back hard, as Danks and Co. work diligently to settle the lawsuit with California.

That's right ladies and gents, iiG is not permitted, by law, to do business in CA.

What a wonderfuck of a business.

Anyway, my point: "Dollar Danks" is not to be fucked with, long term. He'll pull some rabbit out of his ass and sell his criminal enterprise-- to some unsuspecting rich-er guy.

NOTE: I just listened to the conference call. Apparently "Chuck Bennett" strikes again, asking all sorts of fucktarded questions. "Chuck" begins his ranting at 39:16. Click here for the conference call archive.

May God bless "Chuck Bennett."

Staind - It's Been Awhile

2007-11-06T15:26:00.000-05:00

No CC's, I'm fucking busy.

Position Update: AAPL

2007-11-06T15:21:00.000-05:00

Don't fuck with Steve Jobs; he'll break your face open with an ax.

Can anything stop AAPL?

$200 by tomorow?

Life would be grand, if "The Fly" had all his stupid, filthy eggs in RIMM, AAPL, BIDU and ISRG-- with a few side trades in oil and gold bricks.

Instead, I keep trying to find 'the next one,' while the 'current one' continues to mint money.

Developing...

"Is this still CNN?"

2007-11-06T14:15:00.000-05:00

Fly Buys: VMI

2007-11-06T13:55:00.001-05:00

I bought 2,000 VMI @ $84.

Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, your neighbors will accuse you of not being 'green enough.' And, you may lose money.

Position Update: iiG

2007-11-06T13:30:00.000-05:00

As you know, I sold most of my iiG position, with plans to buy it all back--post earnings.

However, something just dawned on me.

My so called 'sources' on this stock encouraged me to be long, last quarter, only to see it get shredded-- post earnings. Now, I'm hearing "earnings are priced in."

Which leads me to George Costanza.

Maybe I should do the opposite of what these hatfuckers are suggesting?

Viz.

Position Update: MVIS

2007-11-06T12:48:00.000-05:00

I really should quit talking about MVIS, since its been one fuck of a loser-- over the past 6 months.

This is my game plan, plain and simple:

- Ignore the stock until December.
- Buy more, ahead of CES.
- Sell 3/4th's of my position, after CES

In short, I am bewildered at the lack of insider buying in the name, especially since this is a concept stock--with a very high ceiling.

I'm not mad at the company. I made a lot of money in the shares, over the past 18 months. But, I can't fuck around with small cap concept names, without the conviction of management being displayed, via stock purchases.

As you know, there are many other stocks worth accumulating, especially after this recent decline. If you are long the stock, I suggest putting it on the back burner, until January, then consider taking some off the table.

Miss Earnings= You're Dead

2007-11-06T12:06:00.000-05:00

This is the most brutal earnings season, since the unwinding of wonderful dot com bubble.

I mean, some of these companies are guiding higher, only to see their stock cut in half. What the fuck?

Knowing how fucktarded the market is, these CEO's should just slash and burn estimates for future quarters, in order to lower the bar and crush them, like Stalin, down the road.

Looking at the declines in BWLD, SMSI, CROX, CTSH, FTK, SNDK etc., is reason enough to seek religion and get on the fucking sidelines-- for the big 'fuck you, you're dead' day.

I know there are many, many more blow-ups than the ones mentioned above. Feel free to add some in the comments section, or don't.

Either scenario is perfectly acceptable with me.

In short, I want no part of any earnings play, including HANS. It simply isn't worth the risk of having your balls lit on fire.

Consider that when tea bagging the earnings bucket-- which is filled with kerosene.

Mr. 52 Week Low: "The Donald"

2007-11-06T11:44:00.000-05:00

Take the Wallstrip survey!

Sector Spotlight: Energy

2007-11-06T09:59:00.000-05:00

I had to sell a little XFML this morning, north of $9. Although I believe the stock can go much higher, in my head, it made sense to lighten the load. However, down in the low 8's, I'm considering buying the fucker back.

In case you're wondering, I have VMI next to MVIS on my monitor, which may explain the sudden gayness in the stocks behavior. However, I just moved the fucker and put it next to RIMM.

Higher prices here we come.

How about that gold rally?

Exactly. Fuck you and your stupid gold stocks.

Within a real commodity sector, oil, stocks are flying. Right here, right now, I like SU, GHM, GLF, UPL and OII.

Also, seeing the metal stocks green, I'm betting VMI will give me 3-4 bucks to the upside, by the closing bell.

Finally, we have a rally going in the financials, specifically ABK, JPM, BSC and GS. My guess, should C go positive, we'll have us a full fledged short covering rally-- to the tune of 1.5%.

NOTE: CROX has to be cheap, no?

Last Minute Firing: Kidstock

2007-11-05T23:39:00.001-05:00

Now, if this is my last week blogging here, did you really think I'd go, without shitcanning one of you fucking retards?

Come on now.

To be honest, as opposed to secretly lying, "The Fly" is quite fond of the one called 'Kidstock,' mainly because he lost all of his money--in a stock I'm long.

Shit like that pleases me.

In short, Kidstock has to be fired, because that's the natural order of things.

God willing, "The Fly" will be blessed by this harsh action with plentiful capital gains.

Developing...

Late Night Observation

2007-11-05T19:05:00.000-05:00

Both SWC and XFML are trading at $9.50.

Odd no?

Updated Good News: XFML

2007-11-05T17:09:00.001-05:00

Never bet against "The Fly." He wins, a lot.

XFML Xinhua Finance raises guidance above consensus (8.54 +1.18)
	XFML raises Q3 adjusted net income per ADS guidance to $0.20-0.21 vs $0.12 Reuters consensus; revs $38-40 mln vs $36.65 mln Reuters consensus. Co cites stronger than expected growth in its business as well as contribution from acquisitions.

Kanye West: Good Life

2007-11-05T16:07:00.000-05:00

Closing Comments

2007-11-05T16:00:00.000-05:00

Come on bearshitters, you know we're going higher. You hear the bull train coming, ready to detach your legs from torso?

All in all, today was an amusing day for "The Fly," as HANS dumped out, while XFML set shorts aflame.

Many of my 'smart friends' capitulated on XFML, near the lows--unable to take the pain. Not "The Fly."

As you already know, "The Fly" could give two bottles of cheap whiskey and a gay mule about temporary set backs. At the end of the day, my stocks go up, mainly because I'm a space alien magician, who has access to the space time continuum.

In short, it makes zero sense betting against Santa Claus, for he will roll on you fuckers with his pimped out sled-- and cold 'debank' your bullshit brokerage accounts.

NOTE: I sold 75% of my iiG position.

Late Day Thought

2007-11-05T15:17:00.000-05:00

"The Fly" wins again.

Final Flush Out

2007-11-05T15:03:00.000-05:00

This is it.

My sense, the market has 300-500 points of downside, with 1,000 upside. We are close to the bottom, considering C and other retarded banks will not post 11 billion dollar losses, daily.

This is a classic shakeout, ahead of the Thanksgiving run.

Right now, make your fucking buy list and nibble, into weakness.

By Christmas, you'll be drinking your low end beer of choice-- out of a golden chalice. As you know, "The Fly's" chalice is diamond encrusted.

With my money, I am focused on commodities and Asian stocks.

Fly Buys: MVIS, VMI, XFML and WBD

2007-11-05T14:58:00.000-05:00

I put approximately 25k to work in each of the above names.

Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, you will be caught short during the annual 'Santa Claus rally.' And, you may lose money.

Position Update: iiG

2007-11-05T14:24:00.000-05:00

I like iiG, long term. However, I would not hold a full position into earnings.

Instead, shave it down, then buy back after.

Quick Alert: Go Fuck Yourself

2007-11-05T14:17:00.000-05:00

I'm covering the hedges I 'threw on' last week, and buying more stock--like a crack head in need of a light.

Moreover, all of you 'small dickers,' attempting to mock "The Fly" during his most recent spaceship accident: Go fuck yourselves.

That's right. Do it.

You can't hold a candle to me, no matter how many times I crash into titanium walls or fall into deep pits with bayonets sticking out of them.

Always remember, you're just some fucktard reading this blog, while I'm the guy who writes this shit.

Ten fake dollars says we go higher tomorrow.

Position Update: XFML

2007-11-05T13:38:00.000-05:00

Who knows why this fucker (XFML) is melting higher? All I know, being long 100,000 shares of the bitch has been an arduous experience, to say the least.

The general market is bleeding, thanks to the 'sub-prime' worries.

Which leads me to my next question:

We all know the market goes up, like clockwork, November thru January. Is this the final shakeout, before the big, gay Santa Claus run?

If so, common sense dictates to buy now.

The problem, people always suspect "this time will be different."

No it won't.

In short, it makes sense to get drunk, buy some stock, then throw chicken noodle soup at your television.

NOTE: SWC down 13%. Odd no?

Time Masheen

2007-11-05T12:30:00.001-05:00

Sector Spotlight: Financials

2007-11-05T12:01:00.000-05:00

Don't you get it?

We have drunken fools running our financial institutions. If you thought "The Fly's" NTRI call was bad, look at those cupfuckers. They're chockful of NTRI's. This shit is disastrous, with ramifications that can break the economy in half, like a salty pretzel.

Now, looking at the market, one could make a strong argument that we are in a bear market. As of now, the homies, retailers, financials and a myriad of hatfucking semiconductors are hugging their respective 52 week lows.

However, "The Fly" will not make such assertions, not yet.

Instead, he will put his 'calculator brain' to work, and figure this asshattery out.

As you know, this has not been an easy tape.

Regarding the financials, I spit on the whole lot of them. Fuck them all; may they burn in hell, alongside Space Hitler.

With my money, I guess it makes sense to chase VMI down to zero. And, I'm quite pleased to see XFML gapping higher-- God knows I need it.

Finally, as you know, this very well could be my last week posting here. This shit is cumbersome. I'll opine on this important matter and others, whenever the fuck I feel like it.

Fuck all this chart shit; Lets have us an Election

2007-11-04T19:04:00.000-05:00

***Election Fraud Alert***

Apparently, this election is rigged. If you notice, it is impossible to fire Kidstock, using the current poll. The "yes" button is fucking broken. As a result, Kidstock stands to win, via Saddam landslide.

To fight this fraud, "The Fly" recommends writing in your vote, via the comments section.

Developing...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much to my chagrin, Kidstock is back--with bad financial advice and a much lower net worth. Last time, prior to being 'shitcanned,' he suggested shorting oil and GLF. Shortly thereafter, GLF and oil booked 20 dollars per share, effectively wiping out Kidstocks net worth.

I'll have you know, "The Fly" just completed all of his Christmas shopping, needlessly spending an inordinate amount of money--thanks to the special 'requests' of Mrs. Fly.

In addition to that, today, "The Fly" was rather busy "winterizing" his property-- also thanks to the incessant urging of Mrs. Fly.

Life is somewhat lukewarm.

In short, it's time for a little internet venting, via 'elections.' Also, don't forget, "The Fly" will soon be shutting down this fucktarded blog-- in order to melt away into the confines of glorified internet folklore.

NOTE: Please participate in the "Fly elections." Should I shitcan Kidstock?

A Different Look

2007-11-04T10:30:00.000-05:00

Oil has assumed a leadership role since 2004 and while many smart guys would be tempted to try and call a top at the psychologically important $100/barrel price level, my preference is to stick with the prevailing trend. The chart below provides a different perspective than last night's which speaks to the subjectivity of chart reading and perhaps "The Fly's" aversion to it.

The chart above uses a box size of 25 points instead of the default 10 points used in last night's chart. The larger box size reduces whipsaws and also illustrates a potential triple top at the 1500 price level which last night's chart did not. Right now the trend is directionless.

The market has a tendency to retest price levels which is why I would not be surprised to see continued weakness in the XOI in the coming weeks should the market continue to get pounded because of the failing financials. My game plan is to look for entries in leading Oil and Oil Service names when and if the XOI probes the 1400 level in another attempt to shake out the weak hands.

Alternatively, should the index regain its footing, any move above 1525 would signal a very important triple top breakout and affirm a continuation of the uptrend. In that case, refiners such as VLO and other Fly favorites should be bought aggressively.

If Every Instinct You Have is Wrong...

2007-11-04T09:44:00.001-05:00

Much of "The Fly's" success can be attributed to his unwillingness to follow the crowd. I'm sure many of you "internet leeches" have been shaken out of good companies that proceeded to march on without you because you got caught up in the negative sentiment at the moment.

An old adage on Wall Street goes something like this..."When you're yelling, you should be selling. When you're crying you should be buying."

With that in mind, I am going to build a case for going LONG oil...stay tuned.

He's Back!

2007-11-03T22:30:00.001-04:00

Much to "The Fly's" chagrin I am posting here again. I had to blackmail him with several incriminating photos of he and one of his "illegal Mexicans" named LuLu. Terms of our agreement prevent me from any further discussion of said photos. As you all know, "The Fly" reveres his anonymity and went to great lengths to secure these photos -- thankfully my dog was returned unharmed.

Long time readers will recall my short oil call from the Spring. Suffice to say it was not a money maker but not nearly as disastrous as other weekend poster's picks namely VDSI and VLCM.

The technical evidence suggests a potential double top in the XOI - otherwise known as the Amex Oil Index. With oil prices approaching $100 a barrel, one would expect the oil stocks to be charging ahead. That is not the case thus far.

To illustrate, let's take a look at a point and figure chart. For those of you unfamiliar with how point and figure charts work I will give you the quick and dirty. Essentially, they are used to illustrate the supply:demand dynamics of a security using X's and O's to determine if the bulls or the bears are in control.

X's are used to illustrate when the bulls are in charge and O's are used to illustrate when the bear shitters in charge. Buy/sell signals occur when a previous column of X's or O's is exceeded. A 3-box move in the opposite direction of the current column triggers a reversal. Currently the XOI is on a sell signal as illustrated by the most recent column of O's which broke below the prior column of O's which reversed at 1470.

Potential top or pause in an existing uptrend? We will further dissect this index and some specific names tomorrow.

GO PATRIOTS...

NASCRACK

2007-11-03T01:29:00.000-04:00

Mid-Night Asshattery

2007-11-02T23:32:00.000-04:00

More bow tie fun.

NOTE: If you are not worth at least 50 million euro, you're not allowed to wear a bow tie. Jim Rogers is allowed to wear one, as you know.

Eminem - Like Toy Soldiers

2007-11-02T16:10:00.001-04:00

Closing Comments

2007-11-02T16:00:00.000-04:00

What am I supposed to sit here and stew over my recent "debanking?"

Fuck that.

Everyday is a fresh chance to steal some money back from the bitch called "Mother Market."

For example: today I bought a bunch of shit, near the lows of the day, then blew it out, effectively 'stealing' money from some unsuspecting pussy.

Basically, losing vast sums of money does not rattle me, knowing I can make it back, since I've done it repeatedly--forever.

The key, as always, is to learn from mistakes and position correctly--for the next phase of this big lottery scheme.

In my opinion, stocks like VMI, CLX, WBD and JCG are high probability wins, right here.

Naturally, should the "cupfuckers" from MER or C throw the market another dog bone, all bets are off. However, for the most part, despite hating people, "The Fly" is a very optimistic investor, with delusions of grandeur and obsessions with being "right."

In closing, all of you can go fuck yourselves, as far as I'm concerned. I'm a busy guy, with lots of upside, while you're some internet surfing day trader.

NOTE: Please visit this website, over the weekend. "Tim" aka "Fly's God" will be guest blogging. And, some other dude may show up, much to my chagrin.

Quick Alert: Market Green

2007-11-02T15:44:00.001-04:00

"The Fly" wins again.

Fly Buy's: VMI, CLX

2007-11-02T15:14:00.002-04:00

I put approximately 100k to work, in both CLX ($63) and VMI ($85.29).

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, your account at MER will be held in escrow, awaiting bankruptcy filings. And, you may lose money.

Fly Sell: RS

2007-11-02T15:14:00.001-04:00

I sold 3,000 RS @ $57.

Fly Sell: CAAS

2007-11-02T15:13:00.000-04:00

I sold 2,000 CAAS @ $8.05.

Fly Sell: EPD

2007-11-02T15:12:00.000-04:00

I sold 1,000 EPD @ $31.65.

Fly Sell: ERTS

2007-11-02T15:10:00.000-04:00

I sold 5,000 ERTS @ $60.31.

Quick Thoughts on the Banks

2007-11-02T14:52:00.000-04:00

Although I feel they are due for a bounce, especially after Chuck gets shitcanned, they're still long term sells.

Over the next month or two, do not be surprised to see the regulators investigating these fuckers, giving them serious headline risk.

If you must own the group, keep a hedge or two on. For example: long MER or MS, short MTG or RDN.

Viz.

FREEDOM!

2007-11-02T13:24:00.000-04:00

Say mercy, bitch-- and the market will trade higher.

Sector Spotlight: Financials

2007-11-02T11:50:00.000-04:00

This is getting ridiculous. If the financials don't bounce today, I'll name my next son "Chuck Bennett."

On my dead cat list is MER, GS, LAZ, BSC, LEH, MS, C and WM. If not today, these fuckers should get some sort of short squeeze going on Monday, after that fucktard Chuck Prince is fired.

Following such a strong jobs number, I am not surprised to see weakness in the sectors that need a rate cut most. However, it doesn't make any sense selling off the retailers and other consumer discretionary names, since they benefit from a strong labor pool.

In short, I see a bounce coming, get ready.

In retail, JCG is my only play. In addition, GES is seriously over sold. And, as you know, VMI is my overall top pick-- down almost 10 bucks in the last two days.

Nice call Cajun, for calling BIDU to $400.

Strategy Going Forward

2007-11-01T22:23:00.001-04:00

***Breaking News***
"The Fly" is not "Chuck Bennett."

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Let's face it: with the Fed put off the table, the financials are fish in a barrel. Fuck what some of you inflation hatfuckers have to say, we are too tight. The economy is not strong; therefore, rates need to be in the 3-3.5% range.

As you know, the homies, mortgage, mortgage insurers, brokers, regional banks and a variety of money center banks are getting the shit kicked out of them. All of them are intertwined in creating one of the worst banking fuck-ups-- in the history of modern banking.

The short sellers have been making a bundle, betting against these fuckers--with the exception of a select few brokerage stocks.

My short list of potential 'going to zero' plays are: RDN, BSC, COWN, TWPG, CLMS, ETFC, CNS, MCGC, NFP, SF, AIB, ESGR, IHC, MGI, RAS, ACF, CCRT, CFC, PMI, ABK, MBI, TGIC, FPIC and RWT.

Now, I know that is a fucktardly long list. Pick and choose your spots.

Look, the financials represent the largest part of the S&P 500. With earnings being slashed and burned, the overall PE of the market is going up. Plus, let's not forget how fucked the consumer is, with their only source of income (house) in the shit box.

This is how I view the 10 principal sectors of the S&P 500:

Financials: Fucked. Their only hope is renewed Federal Reserve cuts and a short squeeze.

Healthcare: Biotech is a major dice roll. I hate those little time bombs. Additionally, with an election around the corner, I'm afraid the healthcare industry will be the whipping pole for many democratic candidates. The only safe haven is established pharma's, like GILD, MRK or PFE. Also, some of the cost containers, like MHS, may thrive.

Industrials: The only stocks that can work are companies that derive most of their business overseas and benefit from the wheelbarrow dollar, or who offer machinery and/or services to the booming agriculture industry. Stocks like VMI, LNN, AGU, MON, BG, POT, DE, ITT, FLR, JEC, FWLT, PCP, BA and BEAV should continue to do well. Also, it appears the military sector will not suffer, even under the Dems. There, ATK, GD, LMT, NOC and RTN look solid.

Consumer Discretionary: This is where the wild card lays. Either the consumer is dead or she received a new, shiny credit card in the mail. Thus far, looking at restaurant and clothing stocks, the consumer is dead and buried. Let's see if she can dig her way out of that grave, in order to buy a few more pairs of plastic slippers with holes in them. The only stock I have confidence in, long term, is HANS--due to its low priced product and loyal customer base. However, looking at M, VLCM, BWLD, CROX, SBUX, HD, AEO, PERY, CACH, RL, ARO, GES, COH, CTRN, BEBE and KSS, I'd say the market is screaming recession. If not, all of the above names can quickly recover 20%.

Consumer Staples: Stocks like CL, PG, CLX and UL have survived many recessions-- and are durable. Recently, I sold out of my PG, due to valuation. However, I still own CLX and will add to the position, especially if the market gets worse.

Materials: If you believe in the retarded 'global growth' story, this is where you buy. Stocks like BHP, FCX, RS, CENX, PCU, amongst many others, should thrive for years, providing 'Chindia' keeps growing. However, the sector is subject to extreme volatility-- and should never be bought on margin, if you enjoy life with green paper that have ugly faces on them.

Energy: Oil at $90+ and gasoline under $3.00 has fucked the refiners. Stocks like ALJ, VLO, TSO, HOC, WNR and DK will not breakout, until this paradigm alters in their favor. For now, service companies, like NOV, RIG, GHM and DRQ, should continue to receive a lot of hot money. Additionally, the solar stocks have been on fire, as investors hope and wish for energy alternatives. I am not sold on solar. LDK should be a lesson to you solar fools. Watch those yields and silicon quality. Finally, natty may make a move here, with China saying natty is 'seriously cheap.' I have some clients in the industry-- and they have been shutting in supply for two years. My guess, with a cold winter, natty may hit $10--sending UNG, SWN, GMXR, NGS, NGAS and BEXP higher.

Technology: Tale of two cities. The semi's are being squeezed, with the exception of the ones who do the squeezing, like INTC. Also, having clients in the field, I understand extreme bullishness in INTC may be a profitable endeavor. However, the rest of the SOX cannot be relied upon. For the most part, good tech revolves around a select group of stocks, like AAPL, CSCO, RIMM, EQIX, CIEN, GRMN (on pause), AMZN, CTRP, PCLN, OSTK, MFE, GOOG, BIDU, SINA, SOHU, NTES, SNDA, ERTS, HPQ, MSFT, NOK, NVT, VMW, EMC, WFR, STX, WDC and a few others.

In short, it's a stock pickers tech sector.

Utilities: With rates coming down, the utilities may thrive-- thanks to rich dividends. Not really giving a fuck about the sector, I can tell you OKE, CPL, EN, D and GXP look decent.

Telecom: Another treacherous sector, if you're not careful. For a long time, NIHD was as good as gold-- not anymore. My favorites are foreign telco's, where growth still exists. CN, CHL, CHU, VIP, TKC, MBT, ROS are favorites. Domestically, I am lukewarm on VZ and T. Finally, USM seems to be kicking ass and is a takeover target.

In summary, this market, like many others in the past, is riddled with potential pitfalls. However, much of the fucked up stuff is already reflected in the share prices. Forget about where the DOW is trading. Look at the sectors that are in the eye of the storm, like retail, financials and home builders. They've been annihilated to the point where mass bankruptcy looks imminent.

Anything that helps the consumer, such as tax or interest rate cuts, will make the short sellers regret living. On the contrary, should our fucktarded politicians go gangster on China, hike taxes and fuck with our cheap labor pools, pack up boys and go home; we'll be at 9,500 DOW by 2010.

Place your bets.

"Fuck these people..."

2007-11-01T16:22:00.000-04:00

Dean Martin - Ain't That A Kick In The Head

2007-11-01T15:54:00.000-04:00